we need to work through all this public policy uncertainty. to focus on the timing of the deal, we think misses a larger point as to whether we actually get a good deal or not. our definition of a good deal is one that isn't too reliant on tax revenues, and actually does start down the process of getting our mandatory spending under control so we don't siphon off all our savings over the long run away from cap-ex towards funding the public sector. but what we think is going to happen, earnings growth decelerated massively from 2012 from 15% a year ago to slight negative numbers now. we think that will bottom out somewhere around the first and second quarter, and reaccelerate through the back half of 13 driven by stagizing global growth, and a pickup in cap-ex. now cap-ex is clearly the weakest part of the economy. we thought it would be weak during an election year. there's a whole body of academic evidence that public policy certainly does impair it. but we were stunned as early as the first quarter of this year to see the tech sector, ibm, t